Early 2016-17 Classification Guess #2

[OutlawTrail]

Here is attempt #2. This is based on a combination of this years basketball numbers and NDE data on upcoming classes. I left multi high school districts to be based mostly on the basketball numbers such as OPS, LPS, Millard, Bellevue, South Central USD 5, and Nebraska USD 1. Private school districts that don't operate as a k-12 are also in this boat. As with last time there are some moves that are based on rumor or speculation. Read it, debate it, tell me where I'm wrong.


CLASS A - 28 Teams
Grand Island 1901
Omaha South 1893
Millard North 1866
Omaha Central 1861
Millard West 1838
Millard South 1596
Omaha Burke 1587
Lincoln Southeast 1568
Creighton Prep 1554
Lincoln North Star 1514
Omaha Westside 1443
Lincoln Southwest 1357
Papillion-LaVista 1296
Omaha Bryan 1286
Papillion-LaVista South 1265
Lincoln High 1262
Omaha North 1252
Omaha Northwest 1249
Bellevue West 1248
Lincoln East 1236
Bellevue East 1121
Lincoln Northeast 1055
Kearney 1027
Fremont 993
Lincoln Pius X 895
Norfolk 889
North Platte 887
Omaha Benson 864

CLASS B - 32 Teams
South Sioux City 855
Elkhorn South 838
Gretna 795
Columbus 788
Hastings 781
Ralston 762
Scottsbluff 703
Elkhorn South 651
Lexington 621
Blair 565
Omaha Skutt 532
Beatrice 501
Norris 500
Gering 485
Waverly 456
Northwest 430
Crete 420
Plattsmouth 404
Alliance 376
Bennington 372
Mt Michael 372
Schuyler 366
McCook 363
Seward 336
Nebraska City 315
Sidney 300
Omaha Gross 298
Holdrege 287
Omaha Roncalli 287
Aurora 284
Platteview 282
York 280

CLASS C-1 - 47 Teams
Adams Central 229
Gothenburg 229
Cozad 223
Wahoo 215
Wayne 210
Fairbury 207
Columbus Lakeview 205
Milford/Dorchester 202
Ogallala 202
Columbus Scotus 200
O'Neill (O'Neill/Ewing) 199
Ashland-Greenwood 186
Douglas County West 186
Omaha Concordia 186
Falls City 177
Chadron 176
BC/NG 171
West Point-Beemer 170
Auburn 169
Fort Calhoun 165
Gordon-Rushville 161
Kearney Catholic 161
Minden 161
Wahoo Neumann 159
Syracuse 158
Broken Bow 156
Raymond Central 153
Conestoga 148
Ord 147
Arlington 146
Pierce 146
Valentine 145
Mitchell 144
North Bend Central 143
Chase County 142
David City Aquinas 142
Central City 140
David City 140
Grand Island Central Catholic 140
Lincoln Christian 137
Norfolk Catholic 137
Lincoln Lutheran 136
Louisville 136
St Paul 134
Boys Town 133 - this is based on NDE Data. There is a strong uptick with the older student grades and this number will probably be much higher.
Hershey 133
Kimball 125

CLASS C-2 - 47 Teams
Tekamah-Herman 125
Madison 123
Gibbon 122
Malcolm 121
Wilber-Clatonia 121
Fillmore Central 120
Bridgeport 119
Johnson County 119
Omaha Brownell-Talbot 119
Logan View 118
Ponca 118
Wood River 115
Yutan 113
Arcadia/Loup City 111
Southern Valley 111
Ravenna 110
Elmwood-Murdock 109
Doniphan-Trumbull 108
Centura 107
Twin River 107
Ainsworth 106
Hastings St. Cecilia 106
Stanton 106
Sandy Creek 105
Sutton 105
Centennial 104
Battle Creek 103
Shelby/Rising City 102
Wisner-Pilger 102
Palmyra 101
Homer 99
Bayard 98
BRLD (B-R 55/L-D 55) 98
Oakland-Craig 97
Wakefield 97
Crofton 96
Hartington Cedar Catholic 96
North Platte St. Pats 95
Superior 93
Southern 92
Freeman 91
Lutheran High Northeast 89
Laurel-Concord-Coleridge 88
West Holt 87
Hemingford 87
H-TR-S 86
Fremont Bergan 82

8 MAN 1 51 Teams
Winnebago 119 - ineligible
Cross County 93 - will be eligible for playoffs, within 2 year grace period.
Omaha Nation 92 - NDE data suggests a consistant drop out rate which will probably make this change by around 15. Regardless, they would be eligible from either the 2 year grace period or the drop in number.
Perkins County* 89 - eligible in 2 year grace period
Sutherland* 87 - eligible in 2 year grace period
Plainview* 86 - ineligible in 2016 but if NDE data holds up should get a mid cycle exception and be eligible in 2017
Southwest* 85 - eligible in 2 year grace period
Creighton* 84 - eligible in 2 year grace period
Neligh-Oakdale* 84 - ineligible in 2016. Used 2 year grace in 2014-15 but NDE data suggests should get a mid cycle exception and be eligible in 2017
Diller-Odell 82
Cambridge 81
Thayer Central 81
Howells-Dodge 78
Humphrey/LHF 78
Overton 78
Amherst 77
Clearwater/Orchard 77
Niobrara/Verdigre 77
Tri County 77
Burwell 76
Elgin/Pope John 76
Nebraska Christian 76
Dundy County-Stratton 75
GACC 75
Hartington-Newcastle 73
Neb City Lourdes 73
Nebraska Lutheran 73
East Butler 71
Heartland 70
Pender 70
Shelton 70
Boyd County 69
Clarkson/Leigh 69
Blue Hill 68
North Central 68
South Loup 68
Pawnee City 67
Weeping Water 67
High Plains 66
Arapahoe 65
Fullerton 65
Hitchcock County 65
Johnson-Brock 65
Morrill 64
Bertrand 63
McCool Junction 63
Osceola 63
Elkhorn Valley 62
Elm Creek 62
Palmer 62
Omaha Christian 61

8 MAN 2 - 51 Teams
Alma 61
BDS 61
Friend 61
Paxton 61
Kenesaw 60
Maxwell 60
Lawrence-Nelson 58
Ansley/Litchfield 57
Creek Valley 57
Eustis-Farnam 57
Randolph 57
Cedar Bluffs 56
Central Valley 56
Falls City Sacred Heart 56
Medicine Valley 56
Osmond 56
Crawford 55
Leyton 54
Mullen 54
Allen 53
Bloomfield 53
Giltner 53
Pleasanton 53
Sterling 53
Brady 52
Wallace 52
Emerson-Hubbard 51
Exeter-Milligan 51
Twin Loup 51
S-E-M 50
Anselmo-Merna 49
Axtell 49
Humprhey St Francis 49
Meridian 49
Sandhills/Thedford 47
Scribner-Snyder 46
Garden County 45
Wausa 45 - May be going 6 Man. Pending decision.
O'Neill St Mary's 44
Hampton 42
South Platte 42
Winside 42
CWC 41
Mead 41
Stapleton 41
Potter-Dix 40
Stuart 40
Wynot 37
Lewiston 36
Parkview Christian 34
Hay Springs 30


6 MAN - 24 Teams
Walthill 91 - NDE Data suggests a consistent dropout rate. We will probably see this number go down by around 15.
Harvard 79
Franklin 66
Deshler 62
Maywood/Hayes Center 44
Heartland Lutheran 42
Riverside 44
Wilcox Hildreth 50
Minatare 54
Red Cloud 40
Cody-Kilgore 47
Wauneta-Palisade 44
Silver Lake 41
St Edward 40
Santee 37
Hyannis 37
Banner County 33
Spalding Academy 25
Arthur County 20
McPherson County 22
Sioux County 20
Elwood 50
Loomis 42
Elba - 30

UNKNOWNS

 

[highschoolfootballnut]

NM

 

[lusciousdelfonte]

Loomis and Elwood likely 6 man next year

 

[OutlawTrail]

Loomis and Elwood likely 6 man next year

K I'll make adjustments

 

[Football2002]

Just to make sure, you took last year's numbers in terms of 8th, 9th, and 10th graders, correct?

Which would NOT account for any move ins or move outs. So, really, this is what the classifications WOULD have looked like had they been done a year ago - correct?

If that is the case, then the bottom few of each class and the top few of each class could all be different.

 

[OutlawTrail]

Just to make sure, you took last year's numbers in terms of 8th, 9th, and 10th graders, correct?

Which would NOT account for any move ins or move outs. So, really, this is what the classifications WOULD have looked like had they been done a year ago - correct?

If that is the case, then the bottom few of each class and the top few of each class could all be different.

Yes. And to add to your point, doesn't account for K-8 private schools without a private high school in the county either.

 

[huskersox86]

Logan View and Scribner-Snyder are not cooping football. It is basketball only. Scribner-Snyder's number for Winter sports this year was 52, and Logan View's was 121. I found that off the Wrestling classifications page.

 

[OutlawTrail]

Logan View and Scribner-Snyder are not cooping football. It is basketball only. Scribner-Snyder's number for Winter sports this year was 52, and Logan View's was 121. I found that off the Wrestling classifications page.

This one was a guess based on a rumor I had heard about Scribner-Snyder having trouble fielding a team at the junior high level. I don't have ears in the community but I went with it. I'll change and adjust.

 

[Llama57]

Wausa may be going 6 man. Believe they are deciding this month.

 

[northeastNebraska]

Logan View and Scribner-Snyder are not cooping football. It is basketball only. Scribner-Snyder's number for Winter sports this year was 52, and Logan View's was 121. I found that off the Wrestling classifications page.

Sox86, what are your thoughts on SS and LV? I think the co-op could be beneficial for both. I grew up in Scribner, and we always had heat with them. Especially after a lot of families from Scribner took their kids out of Scribner-Snyder and sent them to Logan View.

But they should have just merged Scribner/Hooper/Nickerson/Uehling back in the 1970's like it was talked about when my parents were in school.

 

[OutlawTrail]

Wausa may be going 6 man. Believe they are deciding this month.

This would be good for them IMO. I've seen them a couple times this year. I forget what their official roster size is but they suited up 15 and 14 for those games. They have a couple of younger players that can make plays in space and I think would excel in 6 man.

 

[northeastNebraska]

Wausa may be going 6 man. Believe they are deciding this month.

Too much bad blood between Wausa and Bloomfield? I thought they shared classes/teachers already? Also there were the discussions about the big 5 school merger. I know they would be 11 man and it would probably be tough for them to compete, but man the only team that will be close to them for 6 man is Santee.

 

[huskersox86]

Sox86, what are your thoughts on SS and LV? I think the co-op could be beneficial for both. I grew up in Scribner, and we always had heat with them. Especially after a lot of families from Scribner took their kids out of Scribner-Snyder and sent them to Logan View.

But they should have just merged Scribner/Hooper/Nickerson/Uehling back in the 1970's like it was talked about when my parents were in school.

I'm not for it at this time. The combination of the two schools would bump them to a C-1 school. This would mean playing all of the very talented C-1 talent in Northeast Nebraska (Norfolk Catholic, Wahoo, Neumann, Boone Central, Scotus, Pierce, etc). West Point-Beemer and North Bend Central are already playing that schedule and aren't doing well with it. I don't feel that it would benefit either school at this point, especially since both are able to field teams on their own. SS currently has 27 out, and should be about 20-22 next season, and 18-20 the following two seasons. SS will hit a low point in about 4-5 years where they only have about 15 out but that will be 90% of the boys in H.S. This is due to a couple classes with only 1 and 3 boys total in them. That's what we are starting to see in the JH right now with only 11 out. After that, boy numbers will rise again, and should be stable at around the 20-22 for the foreseeable future. They will be able to be competitive in D-2, so why coop and bump to C-1 to get thrown into the meat grinder?

 

[Llama57]

Yes, they share resources. From what I understand, both school boards shot the co-op down. I feel sorry for the kids that it went down that way.
Fairest way to me is have the kids vote on whether to co-op. Leave the adult emotions out of it.

 

[northeastNebraska]

I'm not for it at this time. The combination of the two schools would bump them to a C-1 school. This would mean playing all of the very talented C-1 talent in Northeast Nebraska (Norfolk Catholic, Wahoo, Neumann, Boone Central, Scotus, Pierce, etc). West Point-Beemer and North Bend Central are already playing that schedule and aren't doing well with it. I don't feel that it would benefit either school at this point, especially since both are able to field teams on their own. SS currently has 27 out, and should be about 20-22 next season, and 18-20 the following two seasons. SS will hit a low point in about 4-5 years where they only have about 15 out but that will be 90% of the boys in H.S. This is due to a couple classes with only 1 and 3 boys total in them. That's what we are starting to see in the JH right now with only 11 out. After that, boy numbers will rise again, and should be stable at around the 20-22 for the foreseeable future. They will be able to be competitive in D-2, so why coop and bump to C-1 to get thrown into the meat grinder?

I totally understand that point of being in the C1 meatgrinder that is northeast Nebraska. Also playing teams like Neumann, Wahoo, and Arlington doesn't make it easier.

I hope SS can get their numbers back up, it's still weird seeing them play 8 man, but it is what it is. Will they be D2 next year? There isn't many D2 schools around that area. Closest ones are Lyons and Bancroft but they are co-opting next year.

 

[huskersox86]

I totally understand that point of being in the C1 meatgrinder that is northeast Nebraska. Also playing teams like Neumann, Wahoo, and Arlington doesn't make it easier.

I hope SS can get their numbers back up, it's still weird seeing them play 8 man, but it is what it is. Will they be D2 next year? There isn't many D2 schools around that area. Closest ones are Lyons and Bancroft but they are co-opting next year.

We will definitely be D-2 next year. I'm not sure where we would fall for districts. I'm guessing that we go North in District 1 with Allen, Emerson-Hubbard, Winside etc. But, we could go District 4 with St. Francis, Osceola, Heartland Lutheran, Palmer, and Hampton. We will find out I guess. It looks like Mead will drop so will Omaha Christian, so that could play into things as well.

 

[rufuller]

St. Paul will not be with Elba next year for football as they have dissolved the coop. St. Paul's new enrollment number is at 134 i believe for next cycle.

 

[OutlawTrail]

St. Paul will not be with Elba next year for football as they have dissolved the coop. St. Paul's new enrollment number is at 134 i believe for next cycle.

Will Elba be going 6 Man or looking for a new co-op?

 

[rufuller]

To my knowledge they will either be cooping with Centura or not having a team.

 

[husker224]

When do the NDE release the numbers reported in September by the schools?

 

[Football2002]

When do the NDE release the numbers reported in September by the schools?

Mid to late November is when they were released two years ago.

 

[parotbay]

Benson, Pius X, Norfolk, North Platte bottom four in A.

This is confirmed from some sources I have in the know.

So the only change from the 2015/2016 numbers is SSC and Benson flipping classification. (as far as football is concerned)

 

[HulaMan2]

Elba is playing 6 man from what I understand

 

[rufuller]

Elba is playing 6 man from what I understand

That is interesting if they go 6 man as they only had 1 player on the roster this year.

 

[HulaMan2]

The board voted to have a six man team of thier own next year.

 

[Thusk3737]

Lakeview's number will be 230 for next year which will put them at the edge.

 

[northeastNebraska]

Benson, Pius X, Norfolk, North Platte bottom four in A.

This is confirmed from some sources I have in the know.

So the only change from the 2015/2016 numbers is SSC and Benson flipping classification. (as far as football is concerned)

Wish North Platte could get to Class B.

 

[opinionated.old.fart]

After talking to some folks in North Platte, I think there is that stigma that they want to stay in class A. Similar to a team that could go 8 man, but the "old guard" wants them to stay in 11 man.

 

[highschoolfootballnut]

When North Platte has the numbers for Class B they will be in Class B, its not a choice The are A because thats the size of school they are

 

[Football2002]

Is Wakefield a lock to play 11-man? Aren't they in 8-man this cycle?

 

[runningback43]

Wakefield is 8 man for this cycle and ineligible if I remember correctly.

 

[opinionated.old.fart]

@highschoolfootballnut
I know it's enrollment numbers. I'm just saying NP wants to stay in A. Especially with making the playoffs this year and all.

 

[highschoolfootballnut]

@highschoolfootballnut
I know it's enrollment numbers. I'm just saying NP wants to stay in A. Especially with making the playoffs this year and all.

Got ya They should expand class A to 32

 

[OutlawTrail]

Is Wakefield a lock to play 11-man? Aren't they in 8-man this cycle?

I missed that one. I'd expect them to play 8 again.

 

[northeastNebraska]

Got ya They should expand class A to 32

Personally I think they should shrink it to 24.

 

[Buff-alo]

I missed that one. I'd expect them to play 8 again.

Wakefield will more than likely stay 8...don't see them moving back up

 

[Llama57]

Update- Wausa is going to attempt to stay 8 man.

 

[nenebskers]

Key word...attempt

 

[Football2002]

Also, Hemingford will be playing 8-man again for the next cycle.

 

[northeastNebraska]

Update- Wausa is going to attempt to stay 8 man.

Why they don't co-op wit Bloomfield is beyond me. They would still be 8 man.