C2 Playoff Projections Updated Through Week 8

[hailvictors2]

Here is what I have for C2 playoff projections through week 8. As mentioned in a previous thread, these are really meaningless because there is always a shocker in week 9. If you see an error please post and I will try to correct it. The Week 9 games are listed below with the predicted winner in bold. I am not familiar with some of these teams, so I based my projection on common opponents and scores. Please don't take anything personal.

These games have no impact on the bracket. Even if my prediciton is wrong it won't change anything within my projected bracket.
Southern Valley @ Sandy Creek
Wisner-Pilger @ Tekamah-Herman
Shelby-Rising City @ Cross County
OBT (Forfeit) @ Elmwood-Murdock

These games are "locks". Barring a MASSIVE upset, they have no impact on the bracket.
Arcadia-Loup City @ Fillmore Central (ALC in regardless, just seeding here)
Stanton @ Battle Creek (Battle Creek in regardless, just seeding here. Stanton moves to division 3 w/ a win)
Bayard @ Hershey (Loss knocks Hershey out)
Bridgeport @ NP St Pats (St Pats in regardless, just seeding here)
Kimball @ Valentine (Valentine in regardless, just seeding here)
Wood River @ Doniphan-Trumbull (DT in as district champs regardless, just seeding here)

These are games where at least one team is playing to keep playoff chances alive.
St Paul @ Central City (Central City PROBABLY in regardless. St Paul must win to get in)
Oakland-Craig @ Archbishop Bergan (O-C in regardless, Bergan must win to get in)
BRLD @ Logan View (BRLD is OUT regardless, but can move from division 3 to 2 with win. Logan View must win to get in)
Yutan @ Lincoln Lutheran (Lutheran is in regardless, Yutan must win to get in)
Freeman @ Wilber-Clatonia (Freeman might sneak in even with a loss, but a win would surely get them in. Wilber is in regardless)
Gibbon @ Hastings St Cecilia (Gibbon has to win to have a chance to get in. St Cecilia is out regardless)

These are games where both teams are in, just playing for seeding.
Sutton @ Centennial
Hartington CC @ Ponca

These are games with teams that won't get in, but could move a division with a win which impacts other teams power points.
Twin River @ Centura (Centura must win to get to division 3)
LHNE @ Crofton (Winner goes to division 2, loser stays 3)- Thursday Night Game
Palmyra @ HTRS (Palmyra moves to division 2 with a win)- Thursday Night Game
Johnson County Central @ Malcolm (JCC moves to division 2 with a win)

I'm also projection the following C1 games as they have a direct impact on the C2 bracket
Ashland Greenwood over Raymond Central (Takes AG to division 3, points for Bergan)
Gordon-Rushville beats Cozad (Takes GR to division 2, points for Valentine)

The only other X-Factor is Winner, SD. I'm not sure where they are at W/L record, which impacts Valentine.

1- Centennial (9-0, 45.33)
16- Gibbon (6-3, 40.22)

8- Wilber Clatonia (8-1, 42.77)
9- Lincoln Lutheran (8-1, 42.66)

5- Valentine (7-2, 43.66)
12- Sutton (7-2, 40.88)

4- Ponca (8-1, 44.11)
13- Hershey (6-3, 40.66)

3- Hartington CC (9-0, 44.33)
14- Logan View (6-3, 40.33)

11- Central City (6-3, 42)
6- Oakland-Craig (8-1, 43.44)

7- NP St Pats (7-2, 42.88)
10- Battle Creek (6-3, 42.33)

15- Doniphan-Trumbull (6-3, 40.33)
2- Arcadia-Loup City (9-0, 45)

Logan View wins 14-15 seed tiebreaker with DT because they have two division 2 wins (Palmyra/Yutan). Doniphan has 1 (Gibbon)

Gibbon wins the 16 seed tiebreaker with Freeman because they have a division 2 win over Hershey. Freeman has 0.

First Teams Out:
Freeman (6-3, 40.22)
St Paul (5-4, 39.77)
Archbishop Bergan (5-4, 39.66)
Yutan (5-4, 39.44)
Palmyra (5-4, 39.44)

 

[RCCOB]

Winner is 6-2 this year and the regular season in SD is done.

 

[nenebskers]

If Ponca beats Hartington CC, they become number 1 seed, correct?

 

[hailvictors2]

If Ponca beats Hartington CC, they become number 1 seed, correct?

Correct. They would have 45.66 power points and would take over the #1 seed

 

[ou10e96]

How does it change if Sutton beats Centennial?

 

[hailvictors2]

How does it change if Sutton beats Centennial?

That depends on the other games, too. If the projections I have above hold, with the exception of Sutton over Centennial, the bracket would look like this:

1- Arcadia-Loup City (9-0, 45)
16- Gibbon (6-3, 40.22)

8- Wilber Clatonia (8-1, 42.77)
9- Lincoln Lutheran (8-1, 42.66)

5- Valentine (7-2, 43.66)
12- Central City (6-3, 42)

13- Hershey (6-3, 40.66)
4- Centenial (8-1, 43.77)

3- Ponca (8-1, 44.11)
14- Logan View (6-3, 40.33)

11- Battle Creek (6-3,42.33)
6- Oakland-Craig (8-1, 43.44)

7- NP St Pats (7-2, 42.88)
10- Sutton (8-1, 42.44)

15- Doniphan-Trumbull (6-3, 40.33)
2- Hartington CC (9-0, 44.33)

 

[nenebskers]

That depends on the other games, too. If the projections I have above hold, with the exception of Sutton over Centennial, the bracket would look like this:

1- Arcadia-Loup City (9-0, 45)
16- Gibbon (6-3, 40.22)

8- Wilber Clatonia (8-1, 42.77)
9- Lincoln Lutheran (8-1, 42.66)

5- Valentine (7-2, 43.66)
12- Central City (6-3, 42)

13- Hershey (6-3, 40.66)
4- Centenial (8-1, 43.77)

3- Ponca (8-1, 44.11)
14- Logan View (6-3, 40.33)

11- Battle Creek (6-3,42.33)
6- Oakland-Craig (8-1, 43.44)

7- NP St Pats (7-2, 42.88)
10- Sutton (8-1, 42.44)

15- Doniphan-Trumbull (6-3, 40.33)
2- Hartington CC (9-0, 44.33)

If I had to bet money not sure who id pick next Friday, Cedar or Ponca. Cedar kids has more experience in big games but Ponca is at home and playing with a big chip on their shoulder. I'm surprised by just about every C2 predicted bracket has Cedar winning. Will be close, just surprised no one has picked Ponca.

Secondly, so glad C1 and C2 has a 16 team bracket. All of those games and schools look like a playoff to me. Can't say the same for D1 and D2. One of the predictions had Boyd County at 1-7 in the D1 playoffs.

 

[coffeedrinker11]

I've seen both Cedar and Ponca this year, both very good teams. Ponca has an effective passing attack which will give Cedar a real test. Cedar has some very good and very big linemen. The other piece to Cedar is their speed. They start 3 kids who were on the second place 4X1 state relay team. That's a lot of speed in particular with the addition of #4 who I thought might be the quickest/fastest on their team. Ponca's QB, Kingsberry (sp) sees the field as well as any C2 QB I've seen. The key is it's being played at Ponca, and having been associated with two different schools/teams that have played in Ponca, anything close goes against the visitors. So I'm betting Ponca wins because these two teams are pretty evenly matched in my opinion.

I've also seen Battle Creek twice this year. That team has a lot of potential. If my memory serves me right they were ahead of Cedar at the half. Add to that their 4th quarter against OC and I think they are an impressive team with the potential to go all the way.

I'm planning on the 90 mile drive from Norfolk down to Utica to watch the Centennial/Sutton game this week since I haven't seen either team even though I think the Cedar/Ponca game should be great. I have been told that NCN is going to broadcast that one so I can record it and watch it on Sunday since I've quit watching the NFL due to the kneeling during our national anthem.