Schools moving to 8 man or moving up to 11 man (List)

[Coach PowerT]

I think 70 is too low for the cutoff between C1-C2.

159 at the top of c1. That’s schools around 320 total enrollment. I think the cut off should be around 85

159-85-42

Anyway. If we know numbers that were sent in for schools on the bubble. Post em

 

[viewfromthebooth]

Exeter/Milligan has voted to co-op football with Friend. Per a school board member from E/M.

 

[nenebskers]

Exeter/Milligan has voted to co-op football with Friend. Per a school board member from E/M.

Good for them. Football only? Currently their enrollment would be 110 (49 and 61), a C2. Any idea if they'll be above or below the cutoff?

The landscape is quickly changing with this upcoming cycle.

 

[viewfromthebooth]

As of now only football. It's interesting to note that E/M is currently in a co-op with Fillmore Central for softball. So E/M fans will have interesting wardrobe choices. (E/M Timberwolves, FCEM Panthers and Friend-E/M ????)

 

[TC53]

I see it the other way. Had a C3 been added, I think the list of schools that are looking into dropping to 8 man would be drastically reduced. I think the disparity between the top of C2 and the bottom is the toughest row to hoe in all of football right now. It's not unthinkable to imagine a C2 game where team a has more juniors and seniors suited than team b has players.

There is no data that shows being in the bottom third of your class has led to a statistically significantly poorer performance in football specifically or athletics in general. It is not a significant factor in predicting the success of teams. Actually, teams in the middle third of classes by enrollment perform more poorly (though not significantly) than schools in the top third and bottom third. The old paradigms that indicate that being the smallest in your class is a big disadvantage are not true. They feel like they should be, but the numbers don't show it. Maybe they have never been, but they certainly are not in the last fifteen years.

 

[nenebskers]

There is no data that shows being in the bottom third of your class has led to a statistically significantly poorer performance in football specifically or athletics in general. It is not a significant factor in predicting the success of teams. Actually, teams in the middle third of classes by enrollment perform more poorly (though not significantly) than schools in the top third and bottom third. The old paradigms that indicate that being the smallest in your class is a big disadvantage are not true. They feel like they should be, but the numbers don't show it. Maybe they have never been, but they certainly are not in the last fifteen years.

I'm repeating myself here but one large reason schools are slow to coop are because of the number of classes we have. Less classes would mean less likelihood that schools would change classes when copping or consolidating. Also, would be rare for schools to jump up two classes which is very common now....ala two D2s combine into a C2. Should only be 4 classes total (5 for football due to 6 man). In basketball, volleyball, etc there would be a lot less issues with power points too.

 

[teachmehowtosnuggie]

There is no data that shows being in the bottom third of your class has led to a statistically significantly poorer performance in football specifically or athletics in general. It is not a significant factor in predicting the success of teams. Actually, teams in the middle third of classes by enrollment perform more poorly (though not significantly) than schools in the top third and bottom third. The old paradigms that indicate that being the smallest in your class is a big disadvantage are not true. They feel like they should be, but the numbers don't show it. Maybe they have never been, but they certainly are not in the last fifteen years.

As a person who took many statistics courses college, I appreciate the use of the term "statistically significant." That being said, right after this you state, "Actually, teams in the middle..." and I must know, what are you basing this on? What numbers are you going off of? Did you actually take the time to sit down and track this over the last 15 years, plot it out, throw in a null hypothesis, and analyze the data? If so, a slow clap for you.

 

[bgclub]

any more information following October board meetings?

 

[huskersox86]

Scribner-Snyder and Logan View will be Cooping Football, Volleyball as well as continuing with Boys and Girls Basketball next cycle.

 

[TC53]

I tracked volleyball/football/boys basketball/girls basketball for fifteen years back and then compared success to different factors looking for things that could be used to predict success. Enrollment ration compared to the largest school in class was not a predictive factor. The only highly predictive factors were:
1) low poverty rate as measured by free/reduced lunch numbers
2) past success
3) proximity to a large school (I think I used 15-mile radius and schools of 600+ as large)


(I should list "being a private school" but I had tossed that out as a possible solution in Nebraska beforehand because of politics. Plus, I believe that the advantages of private schools are more explainable through the above factors because they all predict success by public schools. So, I decided I wasn't interested in studying school funding effects.)

I did try other factors. I remember looking at the valuation of each district per pupil, but that yielded no predictive effect at all.

Here's the presentation I put together with my numbers: Factors that predict athletic success

I did an episode of my podcast running thru the numbers last fall when the re-classification proposal was being considered by the NSAA members. It is episode 10 here.

 

[highschoolfootballnut]

I tracked volleyball/football/boys basketball/girls basketball for fifteen years back and then compared success to different factors looking for things that could be used to predict success. Enrollment ration compared to the largest school in class was not a predictive factor. The only highly predictive factors were:
1) low poverty rate as measured by free/reduced lunch numbers
2) past success
3) proximity to a large school (I think I used 15-mile radius and schools of 600+ as large)


(I should list "being a private school" but I had tossed that out as a possible solution in Nebraska beforehand because of politics. Plus, I believe that the advantages of private schools are more explainable through the above factors because they all predict success by public schools. So, I decided I wasn't interested in studying school funding effects.)

I did try other factors. I remember looking at the valuation of each district per pupil, but that yielded no predictive effect at all.

Here's the presentation I put together with my numbers: Factors that predict athletic success

I did an episode of my podcast running thru the numbers last fall when the re-classification proposal was being considered by the NSAA members. It is episode 10 here.

Excellant

 

[HulaMan2]

Well done!!

 

[northeastNebraska]

Exeter/Milligan has voted to co-op football with Friend. Per a school board member from E/M.

Wow. That is awesome. Could be a nice little powerhouse in C2.

 

[teachmehowtosnuggie]

I tracked volleyball/football/boys basketball/girls basketball for fifteen years back and then compared success to different factors looking for things that could be used to predict success. Enrollment ration compared to the largest school in class was not a predictive factor. The only highly predictive factors were:
1) low poverty rate as measured by free/reduced lunch numbers
2) past success
3) proximity to a large school (I think I used 15-mile radius and schools of 600+ as large)


(I should list "being a private school" but I had tossed that out as a possible solution in Nebraska beforehand because of politics. Plus, I believe that the advantages of private schools are more explainable through the above factors because they all predict success by public schools. So, I decided I wasn't interested in studying school funding effects.)

I did try other factors. I remember looking at the valuation of each district per pupil, but that yielded no predictive effect at all.

Here's the presentation I put together with my numbers: Factors that predict athletic success

I did an episode of my podcast running thru the numbers last fall when the re-classification proposal was being considered by the NSAA members. It is episode 10 here.

*slow clap*

Call this guy the Mail Man because he delivers! I must know if this was created for a specific purpose (like someone commissioned you to do this) or if you were just a guy who wanted answers and made it happen. Either way, *tips cap*.

 

[HulaMan2]

Wow. That is awesome. Could be a nice little powerhouse in C2.

So will they be 8 or 11???

 

[Coach PowerT]

My gut feeling tells me that c2 is going to be a tiny class compared to c1 given the fact that so many schools are dropping to 8 man. Couple this with the fact that the top of c1 is at a boys enrollment of 159. Where the current cutoff is at the top of c1 the boys only enrollment SHOULD be around 125.

If they have a crazy disparity between the two classes in numbers of schools. Will they change the cutoff to 80 ish? Probably not, but they probably should.

 

[highschoolfootballnut]

My gut feeling tells me that c2 is going to be a tiny class compared to c1 given the fact that so many schools are dropping to 8 man. Couple this with the fact that the top of c1 is at a boys enrollment of 159. Where the current cutoff is at the top of c1 the boys only enrollment SHOULD be around 125.

If they have a crazy disparity between the two classes in numbers of schools. Will they change the cutoff to 80 ish? Probably not, but they probably should.

move 8man to 55 boys and just make one class C

 

[Coach PowerT]

That's not going to solve anything right now.

The NSAA messed this one up. The number should be 84 and down be C2 and 85-159 be C1

The classes are going to be so lopsided. Just wait.

 

[TC53]

My AD was on the classification committee that the NSAA put together last spring, so I wanted her to have some numbers when she went to the meeting. That started the questions, and I just followed them. I think the biggest realization was just because enrollment has always been the only thing we based classification upon, it didn't have to be.

 

[atlanta_ace]

Think we are slowly leaning toward a day where our big classes get bigger (population shift) and we go A, B, C, 8, 6. And, that's it. B at 24 schools next year with 16 in the playoffs is going to be sad.

 

[highschoolfootballnut]

That's not going to solve anything right now.

The NSAA messed this one up. The number should be 84 and down be C2 and 85-159 be C1

The classes are going to be so lopsided. Just wait.

Once again the NSAA doesnt decide this the schools do, I do not think the schools are worried about the number of schools in each class just the enrollment gap percentages in each class.

 

[TC53]

Fewer classes are going to need to come. Certainly. Probably in non-football sports first, as numbers matter most there, not just for competition, but for safety.

As far as 16 of 24 qualifying in Class B, I think that's a problem we are best keeping. Nebraska's history of 4-team and 8-team playoff attempts are littered with teams left out that just felt wrong. As long as 4-rounds of playoffs are logistically possible, its best to keep the net wide. The heart of that problem is the simplistic (and intentionally handicapped) NSAA point formula. It is not good, but it is simple. Simple makes it very transparent (people can figure out possibilities pretty easily each week; they do it here). But, it's not great at predicting winners. I cringe every time we put more weight on that formula; in Class A and B basketball this year, many teams will get the right to play only home games in qualifying for the state tournament just on the basis of this inexact formula. I much more uncomfortable with that than I am the 16th best team in a 24 team class playing a first round playoff game.

 

[Alum-Ni]

 

[viewfromthebooth]

So will they be 8 or 11???

Not sure but they are planning on 8-man.

 

[viewfromthebooth]

Think we are slowly leaning toward a day where our big classes get bigger (population shift) and we go A, B, C, 8, 6. And, that's it. B at 24 schools next year with 16 in the playoffs is going to be sad.

The NSAA official that was at state softball tournament was interviewed on "The Doug and Daddy show". Doug Duda asked him if he saw a reduction in classes. His reply was that he didn't foresee one. He probably also said that as not to stir things up. Guessing there would be lots of people very curious and surprised by him saying something else.

 

[Alum-Ni]

Read some news that Winside is going to try to stay 8-man on their own from what I've heard. There was some talk of a co-op with Randolph (they do for jr high football and may for other activities)....but for now will try to stick it out.

 

[northeastNebraska]

Read some news that Winside is going to try to stay 8-man on their own from what I've heard. There was some talk of a co-op with Randolph (they do for jr high football and may for other activities)....but for now will try to stick it out.

Wow. Short sighted on Winside’s part. They barely fill out their rosters. Co-op with Randolph and enjoy some success.

 

[Alum-Ni]

Wow. Short sighted on Winside’s part. They barely fill out their rosters. Co-op with Randolph and enjoy some success.

The only thing I can guess is they have some larger classes coming up.....otherwise, makes no sense. Or go down to 6-man

 

[UnionStreet77]

Read some news that Winside is going to try to stay 8-man on their own from what I've heard. There was some talk of a co-op with Randolph (they do for jr high football and may for other activities)....but for now will try to stick it out.

Real shocked by this. Saw them recently, roster listed 14, they dressed 10, and by games end were down to 8. I have a hard time understanding doing the same thing year after year playing a shell game of who's healthy this week.

 

[Ponchn7138]

High Plains & Osceola will decide at special board meeting on Wednesday if they will Coop for next cycle. Would not move them to 11 man though.

 

[northeastNebraska]

High Plains & Osceola will decide at special board meeting on Wednesday if they will Coop for next cycle. Would not move them to 11 man though.

Wow. That would be awesome. Always thought that could be a nice little power. Osceola wasn’t 11 man too long ago.

 

[Alum-Ni]

Real shocked by this. Saw them recently, roster listed 14, they dressed 10, and by games end were down to 8. I have a hard time understanding doing the same thing year after year playing a shell game of who's healthy this week.

I believe Winside had other transfer players available but not eligible to play. They must be counting on them being a part of the team the next year or two

 

[wsc-oline]

Winside and Randolph cooping would move them into C2 so both schools decided not to pursue it. They recently talked about moving to 6 man but decided not to.

 

[northeastNebraska]

No idea who is going to be St. Pat’s and Hershey’s district next year.

 

[northeastNebraska]

 

[hailvictors2]

It will be Hershey, St Pats, Mitchell (Coming down from C1), Chase County (Coming down from C1), and Bridgeport. Southern Valley and Arcadia-Loup City will be 8 man. Valentine will be C1, so if a 6th team is needed Gibbon would be next team over.

 

[northeastNebraska]

It will be Hershey, St Pats, Mitchell (Coming down from C1), Chase County (Coming down from C1), and Bridgeport. Southern Valley and Arcadia-Loup City will be 8 man. Valentine will be C1, so if a 6th team is needed Gibbon would be next team over.

Are Mitchell and Chase County for sure coming down to C2?

 

[SPbObRT]

the Winside thing baffles me, how can you hope kids go out, they should have gone with Randolph , just too many if's and but's in that program. hope they got some kids coming up or it's another two years of week by week if they will be playing a game which isn't fair to the other teams on the schedule.

 

[hailvictors2]

Are Mitchell and Chase County for sure coming down to C2?

That's the word

 

[fasteddie76]

Is A/Loup City for sure going down to 8 man?